Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood and drought cycles, agricultural displacement and agrarian distress in the gangetic plains of India

The Gangetic Plains of India, spanning approximately 357,000 km², constitute one of the most agriculturally productive and hydrologically complex regions in the world. This systematic review synthesises peer-reviewed literature published between 2017 and 2026 to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood and drought cycles, their cascading effects on agricultural displacement, and the resultant agrarian distress across this critical river basin. A structured search of five major academic databases yielded 77 eligible studies, encompassing remote sensing analyses, hydrological modelling, socioeconomic surveys, and policy evaluations. The review reveals an alarming trend: the frequency and intensity of both hydrometeorological extremes have increased significantly over the review period, with flood-affected area expanding at a rate of approximately 0.22 million hectares per year and drought-affected districts increasing by roughly 2.4 per year. These compound hazards have rendered an estimated 4.2 to 8.4 million farm households temporarily or permanently displaced between 2017 and 2025. Agrarian distress indices, including farmer indebtedness, suicide rates, and net crop value realisations, exhibit a consistent deteriorating trajectory across Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The study identifies critical research gaps in integrated flood–drought modelling, disaggregated gender and caste analyses, and the effectiveness of government intervention schemes including the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) and PM-KISAN. Findings emphasise the urgent need for adaptive watershed governance, index-based crop insurance reforms, and climate-resilient agrarian policies to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farming communities in the face of accelerating climate variability.