Integrating machine learning with causal inference for enhanced system dynamics modeling: A framework for predicting complex interactions

Yves Stephane Kamdem *

Independent Researchers
 
Review
International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2024, 13(01), 3160–3167.
Article DOI: 10.30574/ijsra.2024.13.1.2047
Publication history: 
Received on 18 November 2024; revised on 24 October 2024; accepted on 26 October 2024
 
Abstract: 
Approaches and methods like System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) have been significant for assessing the behavior of many systems. However, classical methodologies applied in traditional approaches to SDM fail to identify nonlinear feedback and power dependencies, revealing hidden temporal casual relationships. In this paper, I present a novel approach that combines ML and causal inference methods to improve the forecast capability and semantics of system dynamics models. Incorporating ML algorithms for predictions and Causal Inference techniques for explanation, this combined strategy presents a new era for understanding the system interaction and quantifying the hidden causes within various systems. We illustrate the advantages of the suggested framework over traditional SDM and purely ML approaches by employing it to analyze a genuine circumstance for both prognosis and discovering causal relationships. Our findings indicate that such integration is effective in enhancing the comprehension of system interactions and deriving a reliable method for estimating subsequent state conditions in complex contexts. The results are relevant for various disciplines, starting with economics and ending with environmental protection sciences, where interactions and changes vary. As a result, it will give a foundation for further studies of integrating future computerized methods in the dynamical system modeling of the next generation.
 
Keywords: 
Causal Inference; System Dynamics Modeling; Complex Interactions; Relationships
 
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