Home
International Journal of Science and Research Archive
International, Peer reviewed, Open access Journal ISSN Approved Journal No. 2582-8185

Main navigation

  • Home
    • Journal Information
    • Abstracting and Indexing
    • Editorial Board Members
    • Reviewer Panel
    • Journal Policies
    • IJSRA CrossMark Policy
    • Publication Ethics
    • Issue in Progress
    • Current Issue
    • Past Issues
    • Instructions for Authors
    • Article processing fee
    • Track Manuscript Status
    • Get Publication Certificate
    • Become a Reviewer panel member
    • Join as Editorial Board Member
  • Contact us
  • Downloads

ISSN Approved Journal || eISSN: 2582-8185 || CODEN: IJSRO2 || Impact Factor 8.2 || Google Scholar and CrossRef Indexed

Peer Reviewed and Referred Journal || Free Certificate of Publication

Research and review articles are invited for publication in March 2026 (Volume 18, Issue 3) Submit manuscript

Can pandemics be predicted?

Breadcrumb

  • Home
  • Can pandemics be predicted?

Osés RR 1, Llanes CO 2, del Valle LD 3, Vogt PR 4, Wilford GFM 5 and Fimia DR 6, *

1 Department of Forecasting, Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara, Cuba.
2 Department of Physical Planning. Municipal Direction of Architecture and Urbanism. Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba.
3 Department of Parasitology. Regional High Specialty Hospital (HARE), Dr. Juan Graham Casasús, México.
4 EurAsia Heart Foundation, Switzerland.
5 Department of Biological Control, Center for Bioactive Chemicals, Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba.
6 Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FHTN), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMS-VC), Cuba.

Research Article
 
International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2023, 10(01), 686–694.
Article DOI: 10.30574/ijsra.2023.10.1.0801
DOI url: https://doi.org/10.30574/ijsra.2023.10.1.0801

Received on 28 August 2023; revised on 03 October 2023; accepted on 06 October 2023

Epidemics are global phenomena that need to be prevented in advance to save lives and resources. The objective of the research was to predict in the long term when the next pandemic might occur, and how many deaths it might bring, as well as modeling the pandemics that have struck humanity from 165 AD to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. Having a forecast in advance would allow Global Health Organizations, such as PAHO and WHO, to be aware of these predictions, and to take measures in a precise and timely manner, so that this does not happen, and if it does happen, to minimize its consequences as much as possible. The Bubonic Plague has been the Epidemic that has caused the most deaths, with 200 million, where the average value throughout history is 27,792,857; generally, epidemics are below 50 million deaths. In this research, 100% of the cases are explained with zero errors, both for deaths and years of occurrence, where the trend of deaths is increasing, and the model depends on the deaths regressed on 11 events. It was possible to predict the number of deaths, as well as the year of occurrence of possible future global pandemics. Health entities, agencies and bodies (PAHO/WHO) should be aware of these predictions and take measures accordingly.

Epidemics; Modeling; Pandemics; Death trends

https://ijsra.net/sites/default/files/fulltext_pdf/IJSRA-2023-0801.pdf

Preview Article PDF

Osés RR, Llanes CO, del Valle LD, Vogt PR, Wilford GFM and Fimia DR. Can pandemics be predicted? International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2023, 10(01), 686–694. Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.30574/ijsra.2023.10.1.0801

Copyright © Author(s). All rights reserved. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and source, a link to the license is provided, and any changes made are indicated.


All statements, opinions, and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s). The journal, editors, reviewers, and publisher disclaim any responsibility or liability for the content, including accuracy, completeness, or any consequences arising from its use.

Get Certificates

Get Publication Certificate

Download LoA

Check Corssref DOI details

Issue details

Issue Cover Page

Editorial Board

Table of content

          

   

Copyright © 2026 International Journal of Science and Research Archive - All rights reserved

Developed & Designed by VS Infosolution