Can pandemics be predicted?

Osés RR 1, Llanes CO 2, del Valle LD 3, Vogt PR 4, Wilford GFM 5 and Fimia DR 6, *

1 Department of Forecasting, Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara, Cuba.
2 Department of Physical Planning. Municipal Direction of Architecture and Urbanism. Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba.
3 Department of Parasitology. Regional High Specialty Hospital (HARE), Dr. Juan Graham Casasús, México.
4 EurAsia Heart Foundation, Switzerland.
5 Department of Biological Control, Center for Bioactive Chemicals, Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba.
6 Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FHTN), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMS-VC), Cuba.
 
International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2023, 10(01), 686–694.
Article DOI: 10.30574/ijsra.2023.10.1.0801
Publication history: 
Received on 28 August 2023; revised on 03 October 2023; accepted on 06 October 2023
 
Abstract: 
Epidemics are global phenomena that need to be prevented in advance to save lives and resources. The objective of the research was to predict in the long term when the next pandemic might occur, and how many deaths it might bring, as well as modeling the pandemics that have struck humanity from 165 AD to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. Having a forecast in advance would allow Global Health Organizations, such as PAHO and WHO, to be aware of these predictions, and to take measures in a precise and timely manner, so that this does not happen, and if it does happen, to minimize its consequences as much as possible. The Bubonic Plague has been the Epidemic that has caused the most deaths, with 200 million, where the average value throughout history is 27,792,857; generally, epidemics are below 50 million deaths. In this research, 100% of the cases are explained with zero errors, both for deaths and years of occurrence, where the trend of deaths is increasing, and the model depends on the deaths regressed on 11 events. It was possible to predict the number of deaths, as well as the year of occurrence of possible future global pandemics. Health entities, agencies and bodies (PAHO/WHO) should be aware of these predictions and take measures accordingly.
 
Keywords: 
Epidemics; Modeling; Pandemics; Death trends
 
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