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Applied statistical methods for stress-testing credit portfolios and forecasting default probabilities in volatile markets
Statistical Modeler, Enterprise Risk Management, USA.
Review
International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 2022, 07(02), 924-937.
Article DOI: 10.30574/ijsra.2022.7.2.0360
Publication history:
Received on 20 November 2022; revised on 24 December 2022; accepted on 30 December 2022
Abstract:
Credit markets have become increasingly vulnerable to rapid shifts in macroeconomic conditions, interconnected exposures, and sector-specific shocks, creating an urgent need for statistically rigorous stress-testing frameworks. Traditional credit risk models while useful under stable economic environments often struggle to capture nonlinearities, volatility clustering, and sudden default cascades that arise during periods of financial turbulence. As markets evolve, credit portfolios require analytical tools capable of forecasting default probabilities with precision across multiple adverse scenarios. Applied statistical methods offer a robust foundation for achieving this, enabling risk managers to model dependencies, quantify tail risks, and evaluate resilience under stressed conditions. This study provides a structured examination of applied statistical methodologies used to stress-test credit portfolios and forecast default probabilities in volatile markets. Beginning from a broad perspective, the analysis reviews the limitations of conventional credit scoring and linear regression approaches when dealing with dynamic risk factors, cross-correlated borrower behaviors, and fat-tailed loss distributions. It then narrows the focus to advanced statistical techniques that enhance stress-testing accuracy, including logistic regression extensions, survival analysis models, multivariate time-series frameworks, and Bayesian hierarchical structures. These methods allow for flexible modelling of borrower-specific risks while accounting for macroeconomic drivers such as interest rate surges, liquidity contractions, and sectoral downturns. Further emphasis is placed on techniques designed for market volatility, such as stochastic volatility models, Markov-switching processes, and copula-based dependence structures, which capture tail co-movement and systemic default clustering. The study also discusses how scenario-generation tools, combined with Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping, can produce robust probability-of-default (PD) forecasts under a spectrum of hypothetical shocks. By integrating these statistical methods, financial institutions can strengthen their stress-testing frameworks, improve early-warning systems, and make more informed decisions during volatile market conditions.
Keywords:
Credit Risk; Stress Testing; Default Probability Forecasting; Applied Statistics; Volatile Markets; Copula Models
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Copyright © 2022 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Liscense 4.0
